hollyhock asks:
Who will be sworn in as the next prime minister of the Netherlands?
Closing Nov 23, 2024 08:01AM UTC
The nationalist Freedom Party (PVV) led by Geert Wilders won the most seats in the Dutch general elections held on 22 November 2023, setting the stage for a potentially difficult path to forming a government (aka cabinet) (AP, BBC, Dutch House of Representatives - Cabinet). The appointment of a new caretaker prime minister would not count.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
NOTE 20 February 2024: For the purposes of this question, any person who was on a party's list in the 2023 election is considered to be a member of that party.
Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
---|---|---|---|---|
Geert Wilders of the Freedom Party (PVV) | 0% | 0% | 0% | -0.21% |
Another member of the Freedom Party (PVV) | 13.00% | 0% | 0% | +0.50% |
A member of either the Green Left Party (GL) or Labour Party (PvdA) | 4.00% | 0% | 0% | -2.29% |
A member of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) | 13.00% | 0% | 0% | -6.29% |
Someone else | 43.00% | 0% | 0% | +1.50% |
No new prime minister will be sworn in before 23 November 2024 or new elections will be called | 27.00% | 0% | 0% | +6.79% |