Will the United States publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike from the air or sea against a ground target within the territory of Yemen before 1 March 2024?
Closed Jan 12, 2024 12:20AM UTC
Iran-back Houthi forces in Yemen have repeatedly attacked vessels off the Yemeni coast since war broke out in Gaza (ABC News, US News & World Report, BBC). "Stray" bullets or ordinance that hit an unintended target after being fired would not count. Both the strike and acknowledgement must occur during the question's open period to count, and would close upon the acknowledgement. Targets in territorial waters would not count.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 11 January 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 74% | |
| No | 26% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 80 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 179 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 173 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 463 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
