Will the United States publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike from the air or sea against a ground target within the territory of Yemen before 1 March 2024?

Started Dec 15, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 12, 2024 12:20AM UTC

Iran-back Houthi forces in Yemen have repeatedly attacked vessels off the Yemeni coast since war broke out in Gaza (ABC News, US News & World Report, BBC). "Stray" bullets or ordinance that hit an unintended target after being fired would not count. Both the strike and acknowledgement must occur during the question's open period to count, and would close upon the acknowledgement. Targets in territorial waters would not count.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 11 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 74%
No 26%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 80
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 180
Number of Forecasts 173
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 465
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.195
2.
-0.191
3.
-0.191
4.
-0.191
5.
-0.178

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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