In Fischer v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that 18 U.S.C. § 1512(c), which prohibits obstruction of congressional inquiries and investigations, can be used to prosecute Joseph Fischer for his actions in the riot at the US Capitol on 6 January 2021?

Started Dec 22, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 28, 2024 02:20PM UTC

Joseph Fischer and others were charged with crimes for their actions in the riot at the US Capitol Building on 6 January 2021 as Congress was tallying electoral votes, including a criminal charge for violating 18 U.S.C. § 1512(c) that concerns obstruction of congressional inquiries and investigations (SCOTUSblog). The District Court dismissed the charges made under 1512(c) against various defendants, deciding that the statute does not apply to the circumstances in the case (Casetext - US v. Miller (DC Circuit Court of Appeals), Lawfare). The DC Court of Appeals reversed the District Court, and the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case (Lawfare, CBS News). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Any Supreme Court disposition of a case involving Edward Lang or Garret Miller will be immaterial.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 28 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 52%
No 48%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 60
Average for questions older than 6 months: 200
Number of Forecasts 166
Average for questions older than 6 months: 571
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.296102
3.
-0.274492
4.
-0.215843
5.
-0.202802

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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