In Donald Trump's appeal before the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC Circuit), will the DC Circuit rule that President Trump is immune from prosecution for the criminal charges against him in the DC District Court?

Started Jan 05, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 06, 2024 03:00PM UTC

After the US Supreme Court denied Trump's appeal for it to rule on his claims of presidential immunity that were denied by the district court, the DC Circuit is scheduled to hear oral arguments on 9 January 2024 (SCOTUSblog, AP, NPR). The DC Circuit is expected to hand down its decision in the coming months, but if it does not and the case is otherwise disposed (e.g., dismissal), the question will close as "No." If the DC Circuit decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." If the DC Circuit rules that Trump is immune from prosecution for some, but not all, of the criminal charges, the question will close "No." Appeals and litigation subsequent to a ruling or announcement, including a rehearing en banc, are immaterial (Cornell).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 6 February 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 13%
No 87%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 97
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 151
Number of Forecasts 154
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 339
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username