When will the four-week average of US field production of crude oil reach or exceed 14 million barrels per day (b/d)?

Started Jan 12, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 28, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Despite ongoing sanctions and conflict among some OPEC+ members, oil prices started 2024 relatively low as the US continues to produce at record levels (PBS, NASDAQ, Oil Price, EIA - Short-Term Energy Outlook). The outcome will be determined using the "4-Week Avg U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil" data (which is displayed in thousands of barrels per day by week "End Date") as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (EIA).

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The question closed "Not before 28 December 2024" with a closing date of 28 December 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 10 May 2024 0%
Between 10 May 2024 and 30 August 2024 0%
Between 31 August 2024 and 27 December 2024 0%
Not before 28 December 2024 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 28
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 165
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.047125
2.
-0.046796
3.
-0.045999
4.
-0.034943
5.
-0.03481

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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