Will Ecuador's current state of exception be extended beyond 60 days?

Started Jan 12, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 07, 2024 08:01AM UTC

On 8 January 2024, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa declared a state of exception (akin to a state of emergency and sometimes translated as "state of emergency") for 60 days after a prominent gang leader escaped from prison (US News & World Report, MercoPress, Constitution of Ecuador, see Articles 164-166). Violence broke out across the country soon after the declaration (El Universo [in Spanish], France 24). If the decree is canceled or repealed, the question would close "No."

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NOTE 2 February 2024: Because the current state of exception is nationwide, any extension that is not nationwide would not count.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 7 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 96%
No 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 42
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 177
Number of Forecasts 116
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 459
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.058593
2.
-0.058593
3.
-0.058593
4.
-0.057873
5.
-0.056727

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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