probahilliby asks:

How will Donald Trump and Nikki Haley perform in the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary?

Started Jan 16, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 23, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Donald Trump's dominant lead in the polls for the New Hampshire primary has faded as Nikki Haley rises in its primary polls (CNN, NBC News, FiveThirtyEight - NH Republican Primary Polls). The margin will be determined by taking the number of votes won by each pertinent candidate and dividing that by the total number of counted votes cast. The resulting percentage for a pertinent candidate will be subtracted from the resulting percentage for another pertinent candidate in order to determine the outcome. The New Hampshire Republican primary is scheduled for 23 January 2024 (WMUR).

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The question closed "Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 10.0% and 15.0%, inclusive, and win" with a closing date of 23 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Nikki Haley will receive more votes than Donald Trump and win 7%
Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 0.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, and win 9%
Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of more than 5.0% but less than 10.0%, and win 18%
Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 10.0% and 15.0%, inclusive, and win 32%
Donald Trump will receive the more votes with a margin of more than 15.0% than Nikki Haley, and win 33%
Another outcome 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 88
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 180
Number of Forecasts 232
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 465
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.477
3.
-0.333
5.
-0.317

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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