probahilliby asks:
How will Donald Trump and Nikki Haley perform in the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary?
Closed Jan 23, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Donald Trump's dominant lead in the polls for the New Hampshire primary has faded as Nikki Haley rises in its primary polls (CNN, NBC News, FiveThirtyEight - NH Republican Primary Polls). The margin will be determined by taking the number of votes won by each pertinent candidate and dividing that by the total number of counted votes cast. The resulting percentage for a pertinent candidate will be subtracted from the resulting percentage for another pertinent candidate in order to determine the outcome. The New Hampshire Republican primary is scheduled for 23 January 2024 (WMUR).
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The question closed "Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 10.0% and 15.0%, inclusive, and win" with a closing date of 23 January 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Nikki Haley will receive more votes than Donald Trump and win | 7% | |
Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 0.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, and win | 9% | |
Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of more than 5.0% but less than 10.0%, and win | 18% | |
Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 10.0% and 15.0%, inclusive, and win | 32% | |
Donald Trump will receive the more votes with a margin of more than 15.0% than Nikki Haley, and win | 33% | |
Another outcome | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 88 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 184 | |
Number of Forecasts | 232 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 534 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |