Between 19 January 2024 and 30 August 2024, will Donald Trump be found in contempt of court by a judge presiding over any US criminal proceedings for which he is a defendant?
Closed Apr 30, 2024 02:00PM UTC
As former President Trump faces criminal charges in various jurisdictions, he is under various orders from courts to refrain from making certain comments against prosecutors and others (Politico - Trump Criminal Investigations Cases Tracker, USA Today, Politico, AP, Cornell - Gag Order). A finding of either civil contempt or criminal contempt in pertinent criminal proceedings would count, and the proceedings may be in either state or federal court (Cornell - Contempt of Court). A contempt finding in civil cases would not count (e.g., US News & World Report).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 30 April 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 64% | |
| No | 36% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 118 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 180 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 221 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 527 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |
