Between 19 January 2024 and 30 August 2024, will Donald Trump be found in contempt of court by a judge presiding over any US criminal proceedings for which he is a defendant?

Started Jan 19, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 30, 2024 02:00PM UTC

As former President Trump faces criminal charges in various jurisdictions, he is under various orders from courts to refrain from making certain comments against prosecutors and others (Politico - Trump Criminal Investigations Cases Tracker, USA Today, Politico, AP, Cornell - Gag Order). A finding of either civil contempt or criminal contempt in pertinent criminal proceedings would count, and the proceedings may be in either state or federal court (Cornell - Contempt of Court). A contempt finding in civil cases would not count (e.g., US News & World Report).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 30 April 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 64%
No 36%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 118
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 174
Number of Forecasts 221
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 452
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.27481
3.
-0.264198
4.
-0.262582
5.
-0.262582

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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