Which film will win the 2024 Oscar for Best Actor?

Started Jan 24, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 10, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The 96th Academy Awards, known as the Oscars, are scheduled for 10 March 2024 (Oscars, CBS News). In the event of a tie, the film with the higher box office total through and including 9 March 2024 according to Box Office Mojo would be deemed the winner.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)" with a closing date of 10 March 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Bradley Cooper (Maestro) 5%
Colman Domingo (Rustin) 1%
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) 7%
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) 85%
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 62
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 174
Number of Forecasts 118
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 452
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username