Which film will win the 2024 Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?

Started Jan 24, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 10, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Challenges

The 96th Academy Awards, known as the Oscars, are scheduled for 10 March 2024 (Oscars, CBS News). In the event of a tie, the film with the higher box office total through and including 9 March 2024 according to Box Office Mojo would be deemed the winner.

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The question closed "American Fiction" with a closing date of 10 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
American Fiction 43%
Barbie 11%
Oppenheimer 33%
Poor Things 11%
The Zone of Interest 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 38
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 174
Number of Forecasts 97
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 452
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.866285
2.
-0.651424
3.
-0.601578
4.
-0.480037
5.
-0.419498

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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