Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be more live births in the US in 2024 than in 2023?

Started Jan 26, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The US birth rate ticked up slightly in the 2020s, reversing a trend (Axios, Census Bureau). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using natality data as provided by the US National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) provisional data releases (NCHS - 2024 Release Schedule). The number of children born in 2023 will be determined using the "Vital Statistics Rapid Release" of "Births: Provisional Data for 2023," expected in June 2024, and the number of children born in 2024 will be determined using the "Vital Statistics Rapid Release" of "Births: Provisional Data for 2024," expected in the second quarter of 2025. Please note that these provisional data are being used due to the reporting lag for final data, and the provisional data have consistently undercounted the final data by between 0.0189% and 0.2343% for the years 2014 through 2022 (xlsx File Download).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 33.29% 0% +0.04% -1.71%
No 66.71% 0% -0.04% +1.71%

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