The US birth rate ticked up slightly in the 2020s, reversing a trend (Axios, Census Bureau). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using natality data as provided by the US National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) provisional data releases (NCHS - 2024 Release Schedule). The number of children born in 2023 will be determined using the "Vital Statistics Rapid Release" of "Births: Provisional Data for 2023," expected in June 2024, and the number of children born in 2024 will be determined using the "Vital Statistics Rapid Release" of "Births: Provisional Data for 2024," expected in the second quarter of 2025. Please note that these provisional data are being used due to the reporting lag for final data, and the provisional data have consistently undercounted the final data by between 0.0189% and 0.2343% for the years 2014 through 2022 (xlsx File Download).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.