In City of Grants Pass v. Johnson, will the Supreme Court rule that the City's enforcement of its ban on public camping against homeless people violated the Eighth Amendment's bar against cruel and unusual punishment?

Started Jan 26, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 28, 2024 02:00PM UTC
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Grants Pass, Oregon, adopted various ordinances intended to prohibit people from sleeping or camping outside within city limits, which were challenged in a class action lawsuit filed on behalf of homeless people in the area (Oyez, SCOTUSblog). The district court ruled against the City and Ninth Circuit affirmed (Casetext - Johnson v. City of Grants Pass, Washington State Standard). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." If the Court rules that enforcement of the ban could violate the Eighth Amendment but did not as applied to the Respondents (i.e., the named class representatives), the question would close as "No."

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 28 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 14%
No 86%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 33
Average for questions older than 6 months: 156
Number of Forecasts 57
Average for questions older than 6 months: 464
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.022564
3.
-0.022548
4.
-0.020886
5.
-0.020722

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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