CJH asks:

Will the Freedom Party of Austria (Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs, or FPÖ) win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian National Council (parliamentary) elections?

Started Feb 02, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 03, 2025 10:00AM UTC

As of January 2024, the right-wing FPÖ was leading in the polls, which could portend another Euroskeptic government for an EU member state (Politico - Poll of Polls). Elections for the National Council are due by the autumn of 2024, and the closing date will be extended as necessary until either a new chancellor (i.e., prime minister) is sworn in or new elections are called (Austrian Constitution, see Article 70(1), Austrian Embassy - Washington). In the event of a tie for the most seats between FPÖ and another party, the party that received the most votes for the National Council will be considered to have won the most seats. If FPÖ wins the most seats but new elections are called before the appointment of a new chancellor, the question will close "Yes, but a member of the FPÖ will not subsequently become chancellor." The appointment of a new caretaker chancellor will not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes, but a member of the FPÖ will not subsequently become chancellor" with a closing date of 3 March 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and a member of the FPÖ will subsequently become chancellor 9%
Yes, but a member of the FPÖ will not subsequently become chancellor 89%
No 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 56
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 395
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.255807
2.
-0.231148
3.
-0.179371
4.
-0.139552
5.
-0.137141

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username