The Economist asks:

What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2024?

Started Feb 09, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

With interest rates at multi-decade highs, there are fears that prohibitive refinancing costs for commercial real estate may create broader problems in the US financial system (Economist, NASDAQ, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in August 2024 (FRED). The delinquency rate for the second quarter of 2023 was 0.86%.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Less than 1.00% 8.00% 0% +0.06% -1.00%
At least 1.00%, but less than 2.00% 71.00% 0% -2.47% +3.00%
At least 2.00%, but less than 3.00% 19.00% +1.00% +2.19% -1.00%
At least 3.00%, but less than 4.00% 2.00% -1.00% +0.34% -1.00%
At least 4.00%, but less than 5.00% 0% 0% -0.06% 0%
5.00% or more 0% 0% -0.06% 0%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username