Remo-P asks:

How many successful rocket launches will SpaceX have in 2024?

Started Feb 09, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

SpaceX broke its own records with 96 successful launches in 2023, with the company stating it could have as many as 144 missions with its Falcon rockets in 2024 (CNBC, Space.com). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by SpaceX and SpaceX Stats (SpaceX Stats). A launch will be deemed successful if the SpaceX rocket delivers its payload to its intended destination, irrespective of the operability of the payload or whether the rocket successfully lands after delivering the payload. For Super Heavy launches with the Starship vehicle, successful separation of the booster and Starship would count as successful (e.g., the April 2023 launch would not have counted, but the November 2023 launch would have), and any launches of Starship itself will be immaterial (Yahoo).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "At least 130, but fewer than 145" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 100 0%
At least 100, but fewer than 115 0%
At least 115, but fewer than 130 6%
At least 130, but fewer than 145 93%
145 or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 46
Average for questions older than 6 months: 176
Number of Forecasts 443
Average for questions older than 6 months: 516
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.182168
2.
-0.166566
3.
-0.150734
4.
-0.146795
5.
-0.145745

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username