ALabinsky asks:
Will the Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, or AfD) become part of any German state government before 1 January 2025?
Started
Feb 09, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
As of January 2024, AfD was running in first place in three German states (Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia) scheduled to hold elections in September 2024 despite being the target of mass protests across the country (US News & World Report, ABC News, German Federal Returning Officer - Election Schedule).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | |
| No | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 60 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 186 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 376 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 539 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
