In Trump v. Anderson, how many US Supreme Court Justices will vote that the Colorado Supreme Court erred in ordering Donald Trump excluded from the 2024 presidential primary ballot?

Started Feb 09, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 04, 2024 03:00PM UTC

On 8 February 2024, the US Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Donald Trump's appeal of the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to remove him from the state presidential ballot under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment due to his role in the 6 January 2021 riot at the Capitol Building (C-SPAN - Oral Arguments in Trump v. Anderson, AP, Axios, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "0 or 1." The legal bases asserted by a Justice are immaterial. If the opinion of the Court is per curiam, any Justices not named in any concurrence or dissent will be deemed to have voted for the opinion (Cornell - Per Curiam).

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The question closed "8 or 9" with a closing date of 4 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 or 1 0%
2 or 3 1%
4 6%
5 4%
6 or 7 20%
8 or 9 69%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 70
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 174
Number of Forecasts 125
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 451
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.017269
2.
-0.017269
3.
-0.017256
4.
-0.017109
5.
-0.016603

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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