Will the US Supreme Court agree to hear Donald Trump's appeal from the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC Circuit) regarding presidential immunity?

Started Feb 12, 2024 10:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 28, 2024 10:00PM UTC

On 6 February 2024, the DC Circuit affirmed a lower court ruling that former President Trump did not have presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for events related to the 6 January 2021 riot at the Capitol Building (The Hill, DC Circuit - US v. Trump Opinion, Fox News - US v. Trump Judgment and Stay, ABC News). Trump has asked the Court to continue a stay against further trial court proceedings and is expected to file a petition for certiorari with the Supreme Court for review soon after the launch of this question (NPR, Supreme Court - Trump Application for Stay Pending the Filing of a Petition for Writ of Certiorari). Whether the Court grants a stay is immaterial, and any disposition of a case heard by the Court is immaterial. The question would close upon the Supreme Court denying Trump's petition for review. If, for whatever reason, Trump does not file a petition for certiorari before 6 March 2024, the question will close "No" as of 6 March 2024. If the petition for certiorari is still pending as of 29 March 2024, the closing date will be extended.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 28 February 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 37%
No 63%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 74
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 174
Number of Forecasts 96
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 452
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.930369
2.
-0.88605
3.
-0.88605
4.
-0.880238
5.
-0.817356

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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