How many US senators will vote to convict Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas of willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law?

Started Feb 16, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 10, 2024 07:01AM UTC

On 13 February 2024, the US House of Representatives narrowly voted to impeach Mayorkas for "willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law" and "breach of public trust" related to border security (ABC News, Congress.gov - Mayorkas Articles of Impeachment). The Constitution requires a two-thirds vote for a conviction (US Senate - Impeachment).

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NOTE 16 February 2024: If the Senate successfully votes to dismiss the impeachment proceedings without holding a vote on the "willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law" article, the vote on the dismissal would not be considered a vote on conviction.


The question closed "The Senate will not vote on the House's first article of impeachment before 10 August 2024" with a closing date of 10 August 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 49 0%
Between 49 and 57 0%
Between 58 and 66 0%
67 or more 0%
The Senate will not vote on the House's first article of impeachment before 10 August 2024 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 40
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 141
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.098911
2.
-0.086241
3.
-0.060905
4.
-0.05904
5.
-0.050278

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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