How many US senators will vote to convict Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas of willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law?
Closing Aug 10, 2024 07:01AM UTC
On 13 February 2024, the US House of Representatives narrowly voted to impeach Mayorkas for "willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law" and "breach of public trust" related to border security (ABC News, Congress.gov - Mayorkas Articles of Impeachment). The Constitution requires a two-thirds vote for a conviction (US Senate - Impeachment).
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NOTE 16 February 2024: If the Senate successfully votes to dismiss the impeachment proceedings without holding a vote on the "willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law" article, the vote on the dismissal would not be considered a vote on conviction.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 49 | 7.81% | 0% | 0% | -10.94% |
| Between 49 and 57 | 0.63% | 0% | 0% | -1.37% |
| Between 58 and 66 | 0% | 0% | 0% | -0.31% |
| 67 or more | 0% | 0% | 0% | -0.31% |
| The Senate will not vote on the House's first article of impeachment before 10 August 2024 | 91.56% | 0% | 0% | +12.93% |