Remo-P asks:

What will be the "natural growth rate" of the population of China in 2024?

Started Feb 16, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

China reported a negative natural growth rate for the second straight year in 2023 as the country deals with the demographic consequences of, among other things, its now-scrapped One Child Policy (MSN, Yahoo, China National Bureau of Statistics). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using natural growth rate (i.e., the birth rate minus the death rate over a given period) data as published by the Chinese government for 2024, expected in early 2025. Because your browser may not recognize the security certificate used by China's National Bureau of Statistics website, we have included the birth rate, death rate, and natural growth rate for the past ten years:


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The question closed "At least -1.40, but lower than -0.70" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than -2.80 2%
At least -2.80, but lower than -2.10 15%
At least -2.10, but lower than -1.40 53%
At least -1.40, but lower than -0.70 26%
At least -0.70, but lower than 0.00 3%
0.00 or higher 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 57
Average for questions older than 6 months: 183
Number of Forecasts 251
Average for questions older than 6 months: 533
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.254622
3.
-0.205399
4.
-0.182444
5.
-0.168415

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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