Remo-P asks:
What will be the "natural growth rate" of the population of China in 2024?
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
China reported a negative natural growth rate for the second straight year in 2023 as the country deals with the demographic consequences of, among other things, its now-scrapped One Child Policy (MSN, Yahoo, China National Bureau of Statistics). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using natural growth rate (i.e., the birth rate minus the death rate over a given period) data as published by the Chinese government for 2024, expected in early 2025. Because your browser may not recognize the security certificate used by China's National Bureau of Statistics website, we have included the birth rate, death rate, and natural growth rate for the past ten years:
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower than -2.80 | 0.75% | -0.10% | -2.60% | -3.25% |
| At least -2.80, but lower than -2.10 | 9.35% | -1.35% | -2.65% | -7.65% |
| At least -2.10, but lower than -1.40 | 53.55% | +3.10% | +6.45% | +16.55% |
| At least -1.40, but lower than -0.70 | 26.15% | -1.30% | +0.55% | +1.15% |
| At least -0.70, but lower than 0.00 | 8.90% | -0.05% | -0.40% | +2.90% |
| 0.00 or higher | 1.30% | -0.30% | -1.35% | -9.70% |