When will Israel publicly announce or acknowledge that Yahya Sinwar has been captured by Israel, captured by a country that recognizes Israel, or is presumed dead?

Started Feb 23, 2024 03:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 17, 2024 04:55PM UTC

Yahya Sinwar, who headed Hamas in the Gaza Strip during Hamas' attack on Israel, is being sought by Israel as speculation about his whereabouts abounds (Britannica - Yahya Sinwar, NBC News, i24). Israel acknowledging that a friendly country's forces (military or civilian) have captured Sinwar would count, and a "country that recognizes Israel" is one that diplomatically recognizes Israel at the time of capture. Extradition from a country that does not diplomatically recognize Israel to either Israel or a country that does recognize Israel would count upon Sinwar being in the actual custody of the receiving country. A public announcement or acknowledgment that Sinwar is actually dead would count.

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The question closed "Between 21 August 2024 and 19 October 2024" with a closing date of 17 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 23 April 2024 0%
Between 23 April 2024 and 21 June 2024 0%
Between 22 June 2024 and 20 August 2024 0%
Between 21 August 2024 and 19 October 2024 26%
Not before 20 October 2024 74%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 54
Average for questions older than 6 months: 191
Number of Forecasts 278
Average for questions older than 6 months: 550
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.259483
2.
-0.174892
4.
-0.159732

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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