When will Israel publicly announce or acknowledge that Yahya Sinwar has been captured by Israel, captured by a country that recognizes Israel, or is presumed dead?
Closed Oct 17, 2024 04:55PM UTC
Yahya Sinwar, who headed Hamas in the Gaza Strip during Hamas' attack on Israel, is being sought by Israel as speculation about his whereabouts abounds (Britannica - Yahya Sinwar, NBC News, i24). Israel acknowledging that a friendly country's forces (military or civilian) have captured Sinwar would count, and a "country that recognizes Israel" is one that diplomatically recognizes Israel at the time of capture. Extradition from a country that does not diplomatically recognize Israel to either Israel or a country that does recognize Israel would count upon Sinwar being in the actual custody of the receiving country. A public announcement or acknowledgment that Sinwar is actually dead would count.
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The question closed "Between 21 August 2024 and 19 October 2024" with a closing date of 17 October 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Before 23 April 2024 | 0% | |
Between 23 April 2024 and 21 June 2024 | 0% | |
Between 22 June 2024 and 20 August 2024 | 0% | |
Between 21 August 2024 and 19 October 2024 | 26% | |
Not before 20 October 2024 | 74% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 54 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 191 | |
Number of Forecasts | 278 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 550 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |