Will Republika Srpska declare independence from Bosnia and Herzegovina before 1 January 2025?

Started Feb 23, 2024 03:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

Leaders of Republika Srpska, a Serb-majority political unit of Bosnia and Herzegovina, have threatened secession over the years as tensions within the country's political structure continue (Deutsche Welle, Anadolu Agency, Newsweek, Sarajevo Times). The exact nature of a declaration of independence is immaterial so long as an official governmental organ of Republika Srpska makes the declaration that it is free and independent of Bosnia and Herzegovina. International recognition will be immaterial, and any claims related to the Brčko District will be immaterial (Guardian).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 10.53% 0% -2.54% -3.33%
No 89.47% 0% +2.54% +3.33%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username