argon1 asks:
How many successful Starship launches will SpaceX perform in 2024?
Started
Feb 28, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
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SpaceX is reportedly preparing for as many as nine Starship launches in 2024, with licensing from the FAA having been a source of delays in the past (Ars Technica, CNBC, SpaceX - Starship). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).
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The question closed "Three or four" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Two or fewer | 1% | |
| Three or four | 89% | |
| Five or six | 6% | |
| Seven or eight | 4% | |
| Nine or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 34 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 185 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 286 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 537 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
