What will be the annualized rate of US housing starts for June 2024?

Started Mar 01, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The rate of housing starts, a measure of new home construction in the US, has trended down since April 2022 as interest rates price many potential homebuyers out of the market (US News & World Report, National Association of Realtors). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data provided by the US Census Bureau as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for June 2024, expected in July 2024 (FRED). As of the launch of this question, housing starts totaled 1,418 thousand, or 1.418 million, in June 2023.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "At least 1.30 million, but fewer than 1.45 million" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 1.15 million 1%
At least 1.15 million, but fewer than 1.30 million 32%
At least 1.30 million, but fewer than 1.45 million 57%
At least 1.45 million, but fewer than 1.60 million 9%
At least 1.60 million, but fewer than 1.75 million 1%
1.75 million or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 42
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 160
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.10754
2.
-0.083758
3.
-0.061724
4.
-0.041114
5.
-0.031413

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username