In Trump v. US, will the Supreme Court rule that Donald Trump is immune from prosecution in his appeal from the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC Circuit)?

Started Mar 08, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2024 02:00PM UTC

On 28 February 2024, the Supreme Court agreed to hear Trump's appeal (Supremecourt.gov - Trump v. US Docket) from the DC Circuit's decision that he did not have presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for events related to the 6 January 2021 riot at the Capitol Building (SCOTUSblog, CBS News, The Hill, DC Circuit - US v. Trump). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law as to Trump and the criminal charges in place that gave rise to this case, the question will close as "No." A ruling that Trump has immunity for some, but not all, criminal charges at issue will not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 13%
No 87%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 133
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 260
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.009467
2.
-0.009467
3.
-0.009467
4.
-0.009467

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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