UBS asks:
What will be the Federal Reserve's median projection for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation for 2024 in its June 2024 projection materials?
Closing Jun 12, 2024 07:01AM UTC
In the Federal Reserve's projection materials released on 20 March 2024, the median projection for PCE inflation for 2024 (specifically, "percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year") was 2.4%, the same as it was in projections released in December 2023 for 2024 (Federal Reserve - FOMC Projection Materials March 2024, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 11 June 2024 and the outcome determined using the next projection materials released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), expected on the second day of its two-day meeting scheduled for 11-12 June 2024 (Federal Reserve).
This question is part of the 2024 UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower than 2.2% | 0.30% | 0% | -0.50% |
| At least 2.2%, but less than 2.4% | 8.60% | -0.30% | -2.20% |
| 2.4% | 37.60% | +1.60% | +8.60% |
| More than 2.4%, but at most 2.6% | 45.30% | -0.50% | -3.80% |
| Higher than 2.6% | 8.20% | -0.80% | -2.10% |