UBS asks:
What will be the Federal Reserve's median projection for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation for 2024 in its June 2024 projection materials?
Closed Jun 12, 2024 07:01AM UTC
In the Federal Reserve's projection materials released on 20 March 2024, the median projection for PCE inflation for 2024 (specifically, "percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year") was 2.4%, the same as it was in projections released in December 2023 for 2024 (Federal Reserve - FOMC Projection Materials March 2024, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 11 June 2024 and the outcome determined using the next projection materials released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), expected on the second day of its two-day meeting scheduled for 11-12 June 2024 (Federal Reserve).
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The question closed "More than 2.4%, but at most 2.6%" with a closing date of 12 June 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 2.2% | 1% | |
| At least 2.2%, but less than 2.4% | 3% | |
| 2.4% | 40% | |
| More than 2.4%, but at most 2.6% | 53% | |
| Higher than 2.6% | 3% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 29 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 171 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 91 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 444 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
