Will Ohio legislation changing the deadline for the Democratic Party to certify its candidates for president and vice president for the 2024 presidential election ballot become law before 10 May 2024?

Started Apr 12, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 10, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The Ohio Secretary of State's counsel sent a letter to the state Democratic Party regarding a potential conflict with state law regarding the Democratic Party nominees for US president (ABC6, AP). The attorney noted that the Democratic National Convention, where the party will officially nominate its candidates for president and vice president, is scheduled to take place after the deadline applicable to the Democratic Party for certifying the party's candidates for the ballot (ABC News, Ohio Revised Code §3505.10, see (B)(1)). For the purposes of this question, legislation will be considered to have become law upon being filed by the governor in the office of the secretary of state, in accordance with Article II, Section 1c of the Ohio constitution (Ohio Constitution).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 10 May 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 29%
No 71%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 32
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 145
Number of Forecasts 87
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 326
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.11845
3.
-0.1122
4.
-0.112182
5.
-0.107054

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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