Before 21 September 2024, will Judge Aileen Cannon cease to be the judge presiding over Donald Trump's federal classified documents criminal case in the Southern District of Florida before a trial?

Started Apr 12, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 21, 2024 07:01AM UTC

While a grand jury indicted Trump in June 2023, the exact timing of the trial remains up in the air as Special Prosecutor Jack Smith expresses dissatisfaction with Judge Cannon's handling of the case (The Hill, CNN, NBC News, Lawfare - Trump Prosecuted in the Southern District of Florida). Being removed as judge in the case by order of a pertinent court (e.g., 11th Circuit Court of Appeals) will count, irrespective of any subsequent appeals. The question will close upon the swearing in of a jury in case of a jury trial or the swearing in of the first witness in case of a bench trial (Cornell - Jeopardy).

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NOTE 9 June 2024: If the case ceases to be a case for whatever reason, including dismissal, and all appeals not pertaining to Cannon's removal as a judge have been exhausted, then so long as Cannon had never been removed as the judge presiding over the case, the question will close "No."


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 21 September 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4%
No 96%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 51
Average for questions older than 6 months: 191
Number of Forecasts 138
Average for questions older than 6 months: 551
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.011212
3.
-0.011089
4.
-0.010965
5.
-0.010646

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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