Between 24 July 2024 and 11 August 2024, will there be a terrorist attack in continental France or French Polynesia resulting in at least three fatalities?

Started Apr 12, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 12, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As the 2024 Summer Olympics approach in France, security concerns are running high (NBC News, El PaísASIS International, Olympics - Paris 2024 Schedule). The surfing competition will take place in Tahiti, which is in French Polynesia (Olympics - Surfing). For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by EU law (European Council, see "EU definition of terrorism"). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to count, and attribution or claims of responsibility are immaterial. "Continental France" includes the territory of the French Republic on the continent of Europe plus the island of Corsica. The hijacking or bombing of an aircraft will count if the aircraft last took flight from continental France/French Polynesia or fatalities occur within the territory or airspace of continental France/French Polynesia. An attack in the territorial waters of continental France/French Polynesia will count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 12 August 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 54
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 207
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.040865
3.
-0.037501
4.
-0.034935
5.
-0.034653

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username