UBS asks:

Between 1 May 2024 and 31 July 2024, how many birds in commercial and backyard flocks will have been affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI, or "bird flu"), according to the USDA?

Started Apr 17, 2024 02:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

There has been a resurgence of HPAI in the US, which has already led to the deaths of tens of millions of commercial and "backyard" birds across the country since 2022 (NPR, FDA). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). To download the data, scroll down to the table under the map graphic (note that the webpage has a main scroll bar, then a second, thinner scroll bar to the left of the main one as soon as the map and table are visible). Click "Birds Affected" in the table titled "List of Detections by Day." Then click the "Choose a format to download" to the left of "Share" and "Full Screen" in the ribbon below that table and select "Data." In the additional window that pops up, click "Download" in the upper right to download the data. Figures with "Confirmed" dates between and including 1 May 2024 and 31 July 2024 will count. Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 13 August 2024. As of 16 April 2024, the total number of birds affected between 1 January 2024 and 9 April 2024 was 8,343,499.

This question is part of the 2024 UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Fewer than 2 million 11.90% +0.30% +3.40% +7.90%
At least 2 million, but fewer than 5 million 41.00% +0.80% +15.70% +24.00%
At least 5 million, but fewer than 8 million 23.50% +0.10% -6.20% -8.50%
At least 8 million, but fewer than 11 million 17.20% 0% -6.30% -7.80%
At least 11 million, but fewer than 14 million 4.10% -0.60% -2.90% -3.90%
At least 14 million, but fewer than 17 million 1.80% -0.60% -1.60% -4.20%
At least 17 million, but fewer than 20 million 0.40% 0% -1.40% -3.60%
20 million or more 0.10% 0% -0.70% -3.90%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username