UBS asks:
Between 1 May 2024 and 31 July 2024, how many birds in commercial and backyard flocks will have been affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI, or "bird flu"), according to the USDA?
Closing Aug 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
There has been a resurgence of HPAI in the US, which has already led to the deaths of tens of millions of commercial and "backyard" birds across the country since 2022 (NPR, FDA). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). To download the data, scroll down to the table under the map graphic (note that the webpage has a main scroll bar, then a second, thinner scroll bar to the left of the main one as soon as the map and table are visible). Click "Birds Affected" in the table titled "List of Detections by Day." Then click the "Choose a format to download" to the left of "Share" and "Full Screen" in the ribbon below that table and select "Data." In the additional window that pops up, click "Download" in the upper right to download the data. Figures with "Confirmed" dates between and including 1 May 2024 and 31 July 2024 will count. Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 13 August 2024. As of 16 April 2024, the total number of birds affected between 1 January 2024 and 9 April 2024 was 8,343,499.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 2 million | 3.60% | +0.20% | -0.70% |
| At least 2 million, but fewer than 5 million | 12.90% | +2.40% | -2.90% |
| At least 5 million, but fewer than 8 million | 34.30% | +2.70% | +7.50% |
| At least 8 million, but fewer than 11 million | 28.50% | -6.90% | -3.20% |
| At least 11 million, but fewer than 14 million | 8.10% | +1.20% | +0.90% |
| At least 14 million, but fewer than 17 million | 5.20% | +0.40% | +0.10% |
| At least 17 million, but fewer than 20 million | 4.10% | 0% | -0.70% |
| 20 million or more | 3.30% | 0% | -1.00% |