Donald Trump is facing various criminal charges in US federal and state courts (Politico). Trump will be deemed convicted upon either 1) entering a guilty or nolo contendere plea in open court, or 2) being convicted of a crime at trial (for the purposes of this question, when the trier of fact, a jury or a judge, announces a guilty verdict in open court) (Cornell - Trier of Fact, Cornell - Nolo contendere). Any appeals of a conviction or motions for a directed verdict are immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.