Will Donald Trump be convicted of a crime in a US federal and/or state court before 5 November 2024?

Started Apr 19, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Donald Trump is facing various criminal charges in US federal and state courts (Politico). Trump will be deemed convicted upon either 1) entering a guilty or nolo contendere plea in open court, or 2) being convicted of a crime at trial (for the purposes of this question, when the trier of fact, a jury or a judge, announces a guilty verdict in open court) (Cornell - Trier of Fact, Cornell - Nolo contendere). Any appeals of a conviction or motions for a directed verdict are immaterial.

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The question closed "Yes, state only" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, federal only 0%
Yes, state only 87%
Yes, both federal and state 2%
No 11%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 96
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 287
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.048615
2.
-0.048615
3.
-0.048615
4.
-0.048015
5.
-0.046425

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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