UBS asks:
What will be the closing yield for the Japanese 10-year bond on 2 August 2024?
Closed Aug 02, 2024 07:01AM UTC
In March 2024, the Bank of Japan ended its interest rate policy after eight years and abolished its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy in a move to normalize the country's monetary policy (US News & World Report, CNBC, Investopedia, US News & World Report - YCC Explainer). The question will be suspended on 1 August 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported in the US by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set chart to "1Y" and hover cursor over the chart for data). The closing yield for the Japanese 10-year bond on 2 August 2023 was 0.6270%.
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The question closed "At least 0.9000%, but less than 1.0500%" with a closing date of 2 August 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 0.6000% | 0% | |
| At least 0.6000%, but less than 0.7500% | 0% | |
| At least 0.7500%, but less than 0.9000% | 0% | |
| At least 0.9000%, but less than 1.0500% | 62% | |
| At least 1.0500%, but less than 1.2000% | 38% | |
| At least 1.2000%, but less than 1.3500% | 0% | |
| 1.3500% or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 28 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 167 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 136 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 438 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
