UBS asks:
What will be the change in US nonfarm payrolls in the month of July 2024 as compared to the previous month?
Closing Aug 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The US labor market has remained strong in early 2024, defying expectations (AP, NBC News). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2024 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS') "All Employees, Total Nonfarm" for July 2024 as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database when first released for July 2024 (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Change, Thousands of Persons"). The change in US nonfarm payrolls in the month of July 2023 as compared to the previous month was up by 184,000.
This question is part of the 2024 UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Down by more than 200,000 | 0.50% | 0% | +0.50% |
| Down by more than 100,000, but at most 200,000 | 0.80% | 0% | -0.20% |
| Down by more than 0, but at most 100,000 | 19.40% | +10.00% | -4.60% |
| Up by at least 0, but less than 100,000 | 27.30% | -2.50% | +14.30% |
| Up by at least 100,000, but less than 200,000 | 26.40% | -7.50% | -12.60% |
| Up by at least 200,000, but less than 300,000 | 20.60% | 0% | +2.60% |
| Up by 300,000 or more | 5.00% | 0% | 0% |