UBS asks:

What will be the change in US nonfarm payrolls in the month of July 2024 as compared to the previous month?

Started Apr 24, 2024 02:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The US labor market has remained strong in early 2024, defying expectations (AP, NBC News). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2024 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS') "All Employees, Total Nonfarm" for July 2024 as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database when first released for July 2024 (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Change, Thousands of Persons"). The change in US nonfarm payrolls in the month of July 2023 as compared to the previous month was up by 184,000.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Down by more than 200,000 0.50% 0% 0%
Down by more than 100,000, but at most 200,000 0.80% 0% 0%
Down by more than 0, but at most 100,000 20.90% 0% +1.50%
Up by at least 0, but less than 100,000 28.80% +1.00% +1.50%
Up by at least 100,000, but less than 200,000 25.40% -0.80% -1.00%
Up by at least 200,000, but less than 300,000 19.40% -0.20% -1.20%
Up by 300,000 or more 4.20% 0% -0.80%

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