UBS asks:
What will be the change in US nonfarm payrolls in the month of July 2024 as compared to the previous month?
Closed Aug 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The US labor market has remained strong in early 2024, defying expectations (AP, NBC News). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2024 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS') "All Employees, Total Nonfarm" for July 2024 as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database when first released for July 2024 (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Change, Thousands of Persons"). The change in US nonfarm payrolls in the month of July 2023 as compared to the previous month was up by 184,000.
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The question closed "Up by at least 100,000, but less than 200,000" with a closing date of 1 August 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Down by more than 200,000 | 0% | |
| Down by more than 100,000, but at most 200,000 | 0% | |
| Down by more than 0, but at most 100,000 | 0% | |
| Up by at least 0, but less than 100,000 | 6% | |
| Up by at least 100,000, but less than 200,000 | 69% | |
| Up by at least 200,000, but less than 300,000 | 25% | |
| Up by 300,000 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 30 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 166 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 85 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 436 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
