Reports of health problems for Kadyrov, the Head of the Chechen Republic and close ally of Vladimir Putin, have led to speculation that he may leave the position or be replaced (Moscow Times, Politico, Guardian). The Head of the Chechen Republic is an office akin to a presidency (Constitution of Chechnya via Archive.org, see Article 63 [in Russian]). Any temporary exercise of the Head of the Chechen Republic's duties by others according to Article 76 would not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.