UBS asks:

What will be the closing price for the September 2024 futures contract for arabica coffee on 16 August 2024, according to the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)?

Started May 01, 2024 02:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 16, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Coffee prices have risen substantially in 2024 due to supply concerns (MSN [Business Insider], NASDAQ [Barchart]). The two main types of coffee produced commercially are arabica and robusta, with the latter reaching all-time highs in April 2024 (MSN [Barchart], AP). The question will be suspended on 15 August 2024 and the outcome determined using price data as reported in the US (your location in the world may impact how the site dates prices) by ICE (ICE, set to "3 MONTHS"). The closing price on 25 April 2024 was 226.300.

This question is part of the 2024 UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Less than $190 6.20% 0% -2.10% -12.70%
At least $190, but less than $210 21.10% -1.00% -6.10% -19.30%
At least $210, but less than $230 34.40% +0.20% +2.10% +9.60%
At least $230, but less than $250 28.80% +0.70% +3.20% +16.60%
At least $250, but less than $270 8.00% +0.10% +2.80% +5.00%
At least $270, but less than $290 1.00% 0% +0.10% +0.70%
At least $290, but less than $310 0.30% 0% -0.10% +0.20%
$310 or more 0.20% 0% +0.10% -0.10%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username