How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from July 2024 through September 2024 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?

Started May 10, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
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The continued influx of people illegally crossing the US border with Mexico has become a major issue in the 2024 US presidential campaign (NPR, BBC, Yahoo [Fox News]). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by CBP for the calendar months of July 2024 through September 2024 once data for September 2024 are first reported (CBP). Between calendar July 2023 and September 2023, CBP reported a total of 686,177 encounters in the US southwest as of the launch of this question.

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NOTE 10 May 2024: The question is concerned with July through September 2024, or Q3 2024.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Fewer than 250,000 0.60% 0% 0%
At least 250,000, but fewer than 400,000 2.60% -0.10% +0.40%
At least 400,000, but fewer than 550,000 18.70% +0.10% +0.20%
At least 550,000, but fewer than 700,000 29.10% -0.80% +1.10%
At least 700,000, but fewer than 850,000 21.70% +1.30% +5.90%
More than 850,000 27.30% -0.50% -7.60%

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