JMcW and SharpEdge ask:

How many debates between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will take place before 25 October 2024?

Started May 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 25, 2024 07:01AM UTC

President Biden surprised many by offering to debate Donald Trump twice, to which Trump agreed and with the first before either major US party formally nominates its candidate for president (The Hill, CNN). A debate must be in person to count, and the presence of other presidential candidates is immaterial. Whether either or both men are actually nominated by their respected parties is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "1" with a closing date of 25 October 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 5%
1 94%
2 0%
3 or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 113
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 165
Number of Forecasts 330
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 434
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.112882
2.
-0.088323
3.
-0.080916
4.
-0.063855
5.
-0.060274

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username