erikbays asks:

Will Joe Biden be officially nominated as the Democratic Party's nominee for president in 2024?

Started May 20, 2024 02:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 21, 2024 05:46PM UTC

President Biden's plan to debate Trump far earlier than normal in a presidential election cycle has raised speculation that it could open the door to someone other than Biden getting the Democratic nomination (Nate Silver). The question will close upon the Democratic Party formally nominating a candidate as its nominee or Biden publicly announcing that he will neither seek nor accept the Democratic nomination. The Democratic National Convention is scheduled to be held in Chicago, Illinois, for 19-22 August 2024. If no presidential candidate has been nominated by the Democratic Party before 23 August 2024, the close date will be extended.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 21 July 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 26%
No 74%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 173
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 165
Number of Forecasts 748
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 433
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.484697
2.
-1.386861
3.
-1.256798
4.
-1.21756
5.
-1.091661

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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