Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in the next Georgian parliamentary election?

Started May 24, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 26, 2024 07:01AM UTC

With parliamentary elections approaching, Georgia is gripped by a major political fight over a "foreign agents" law that opponents fear will pull the country away from the EU and closer to Moscow (BBC, Politico, NPR). The People's Power party split from GD in 2022, and People's Power registered as a political party in March 2024 (Georgia Today, Civil Georgia). In the event of a split in a party or a merger of parties, further resolution instructions will be provided. As of the launch of this question, the election is scheduled for 26 October 2024 (Georgian Public Broadcaster). A majority is more than 50%.

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NOTE 29 July 2024: We have seen the reports that GD and People's Power have announced that they will run on a combined list. As the Election Administration of Georgia (CEC) reports the political party (or lack thereof) of a candidate elected from a combined list, whether the GD and People's Power party run on a combined list is immaterial to the outcome of this question.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, GD will win a majority of seats 6%
No, but GD and the People's Power party combined will win a majority of seats 16%
No, and GD and the People's Power party combined will not win a majority of seats 79%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 20
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 127
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.553766
2.
-0.530141
3.
-0.334573
4.
-0.201821
5.
-0.170081

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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