With parliamentary elections approaching, Georgia is gripped by a major political fight over a "foreign agents" law that opponents fear will pull the country away from the EU and closer to Moscow (BBC, Politico, NPR). The People's Power party split from GD in 2022, and People's Power registered as a political party in March 2024 (Georgia Today, Civil Georgia). In the event of a split in a party or a merger of parties, further resolution instructions will be provided. As of the launch of this question, the election is scheduled for 26 October 2024 (Georgian Public Broadcaster). A majority is more than 50%.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 29 July 2024: We have seen the reports that GD and People's Power have announced that they will run on a combined list. As the Election Administration of Georgia (CEC) reports the political party (or lack thereof) of a candidate elected from a combined list, whether the GD and People's Power party run on a combined list is immaterial to the outcome of this question.