Captbullett asks:

Will Donald Trump be sentenced to serve time in prison for his New York state conviction on falsifying business records?

Started Jun 07, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 02, 2024 07:00PM UTC

On 30 May 2024, Trump was convicted on 34 felony charges related to falsifying business records, after which the judge scheduled a sentencing hearing for 11 July 2024 (ABC News, Axios). A prison sentence fully suspended by the trial court judge will not count as being sentenced to serve time in prison (Cornell - Suspended Sentence). The question will close early if the judge in the case postpones the sentencing hearing to a date after 9 August 2024.

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As Judge Merchan postponed the sentencing hearing to a date after 9 August 2024, the question closed "Trump will not be sentenced for the conviction before 10 August 2024" with a closing date of 2 July 2024 (Judge Merchan Letter).

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and he will not be granted bail pending appeal 2%
Yes, but he will be granted bail pending appeal 23%
No 55%
Trump will not be sentenced for the conviction before 10 August 2024 20%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 91
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 141
Number of Forecasts 147
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 319
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.229492
2.
-1.126692
3.
-1.018292
4.
-0.807896
5.
-0.7949

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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