Captbullett asks:
Will Donald Trump be sentenced to serve time in prison for his New York state conviction on falsifying business records?
Closed Jul 02, 2024 07:00PM UTC
On 30 May 2024, Trump was convicted on 34 felony charges related to falsifying business records, after which the judge scheduled a sentencing hearing for 11 July 2024 (ABC News, Axios). A prison sentence fully suspended by the trial court judge will not count as being sentenced to serve time in prison (Cornell - Suspended Sentence). The question will close early if the judge in the case postpones the sentencing hearing to a date after 9 August 2024.
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As Judge Merchan postponed the sentencing hearing to a date after 9 August 2024, the question closed "Trump will not be sentenced for the conviction before 10 August 2024" with a closing date of 2 July 2024 (Judge Merchan Letter).
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, and he will not be granted bail pending appeal | 2% | |
| Yes, but he will be granted bail pending appeal | 23% | |
| No | 55% | |
| Trump will not be sentenced for the conviction before 10 August 2024 | 20% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 91 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 147 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |