When will NATO and/or a NATO member state publicly accuse Republic of Serbia national military forces and/or law enforcement of either entering Kosovo without authorization or firing a weapon or weapons into Kosovo?
Closed Apr 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Tensions in Kosovo escalated into violence in 2023 and have remained high into 2024 (AP, PBS, US News & World Report, Politico). For the purposes of this question, "firing weapons into Kosovo" means the shooting of bullets, artillery shells, rockets, offensive drones, or other munitions into the territory or airspace of Kosovo. The entering of forces or firing of weapons and the accusation of such must take place in the question's open period to count.
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The question closed "Not before 1 April 2025" with a closing date of 1 April 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 1 October 2024 | 1% | |
| Between 1 October 2024 and 31 December 2024 | 2% | |
| Between 1 January 2025 and 31 March 2025 | 1% | |
| Not before 1 April 2025 | 96% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 52 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 170 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |
