Before 28 December 2024, will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) execute a military strike within the territory of Iran?

Started Jun 28, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 25, 2024 11:00PM UTC

Iran and Israel traded missile and drone attacks in April 2024 after Israel bombed an Iranian consular building in Syria and killed several Revolutionary Guard officers (BBC). Israel has stated that it would not allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon, which is widely seen to include a possible military strike by Israel against Iran (Axios, Voice of America, Al Jazeera). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike would be immaterial so long as the weapon detonates or discharges on Iranian territory. A cyberattack alone would not count. Actions not executed by the IDF would not count (e.g., covert assassinations of nuclear scientists). A strike in or over Iranian territorial waters would not count.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 25 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 89%
No 11%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 126
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 164
Number of Forecasts 534
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 432
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.498339
3.
-0.496918
5.
-0.477766

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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