Before 28 December 2024, will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) execute a military strike within the territory of Iran?
Closed Oct 25, 2024 11:00PM UTC
Iran and Israel traded missile and drone attacks in April 2024 after Israel bombed an Iranian consular building in Syria and killed several Revolutionary Guard officers (BBC). Israel has stated that it would not allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon, which is widely seen to include a possible military strike by Israel against Iran (Axios, Voice of America, Al Jazeera). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike would be immaterial so long as the weapon detonates or discharges on Iranian territory. A cyberattack alone would not count. Actions not executed by the IDF would not count (e.g., covert assassinations of nuclear scientists). A strike in or over Iranian territorial waters would not count.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 25 October 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 89% | |
No | 11% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 126 |
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 164 | |
Number of Forecasts | 534 |
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 432 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |