When will US total nonfarm private payrolls next decrease in a given month as compared to the preceding month, according to ADP?

Started Jul 12, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

While the US private sector has continued to create jobs, the pace of job creation has slowed (CNBC, Yahoo [Reuters], Investopedia - ADP). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data from the firm Automatic Data Processing (ADP) as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Change, Persons"). Subsequent revisions will be immaterial.

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The question closed "Not before April 2025" with a closing date of 1 April 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Between July 2024 and September 2024 1%
Between October 2024 and December 2024 1%
Between January 2025 and March 2025 3%
Not before April 2025 94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 32
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 193
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.092852
2.
-0.091935
3.
-0.08207
4.
-0.077716
5.
-0.072935

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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