SharpEdge asks:

How many debates between the Democratic Party and Republican Party presidential nominees will take place before 29 October 2024?

Started Jul 26, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 29, 2024 07:01AM UTC

With President Biden ending his reelection bid, the future of presidential debates this election cycle is in flux (CBS News, CNBC). A debate must be in person to count, and the presence of other presidential candidates is immaterial.

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NOTE 3 August 2024: As neither Trump nor Biden were nominees of their respective parties as of the 27 June 2024 debate between the two, that debate does not count for this question.


The question closed "1" with a closing date of 29 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 4%
1 94%
2 1%
3 or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 139
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 163
Number of Forecasts 531
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 429
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.055716
2.
-0.055716
3.
-0.055716
4.
-0.055716
5.
-0.055716

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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