When will North Korea next detonate a nuclear device?
Closed Aug 09, 2025 07:01AM UTC
While North Korea has ramped up missile tests and deployments in recent years, it hasn't detonated a nuclear device in several years as South Korea reportedly considers building its own nuclear deterrence (Yahoo [Reuters], Deutsche Welle). For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (BBC). A device that produces an explosive detonation for a subcritical test is not considered a "nuclear device" that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion (National Nuclear Security Administration).
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The question closed "Not before 9 August 2025" with a closing date of 9 August 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 8 December 2024 | 0% | |
| Between 8 December 2024 and 8 April 2025 | 0% | |
| Between 9 April 2025 and 8 August 2025 | 3% | |
| Not before 9 August 2025 | 97% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 92 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 508 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |