When will North Korea next detonate a nuclear device?

Started Aug 09, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 09, 2025 07:01AM UTC

While North Korea has ramped up missile tests and deployments in recent years, it hasn't detonated a nuclear device in several years as South Korea reportedly considers building its own nuclear deterrence (Yahoo [Reuters], Deutsche Welle). For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (BBC). A device that produces an explosive detonation for a subcritical test is not considered a "nuclear device" that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion (National Nuclear Security Administration).

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The question closed "Not before 9 August 2025" with a closing date of 9 August 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 8 December 2024 0%
Between 8 December 2024 and 8 April 2025 0%
Between 9 April 2025 and 8 August 2025 3%
Not before 9 August 2025 97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 92
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 508
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.044551
3.
-0.044413
4.
-0.044134

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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