What will be China's youth unemployment rate in November 2024?
Closed Dec 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
China restarted reporting its youth (ages 16 to 24) unemployment rate in January 2024 with a changed methodology after pausing for several months in 2023 (AP, Voice of America). Under the new methodology, the youth unemployment rate jumped to 17.1% in July 2024 (CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2024 and the outcome determined using National Bureau of Statistics of China data as reported by Trading Economics, expected in December 2024 (Trading Economics).
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The question closed "At least 15.0%, but less than 17.0%" with a closing date of 1 December 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 13.0% | 1% | |
| At least 13.0%, but less than 15.0% | 4% | |
| At least 15.0%, but less than 17.0% | 37% | |
| At least 17.0%, but less than 19.0% | 45% | |
| At least 19.0%, but less than 21.0% | 2% | |
| 21.0% or more | 1% | |
| China will not report its youth unemployment rate for November 2024 before 1 January 2025 | 11% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 17 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 159 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 117 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 421 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
