Will Russian President Vladimir Putin attend the inauguration of the next Mexican president, scheduled for 1 October 2024?

Started Aug 23, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Mexico has invited Putin to attend the inauguration of Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum (Texas Public Radio, TASS). Putin's potential attendance would be complicated by the issuance of a warrant for his arrest by the International Criminal Court, which obliges Mexico to arrest Putin should he enter the country (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Parliamentarians for Global Action). Putin must be physically present at the inauguration to count, which is scheduled for 1 October 2024 (AP).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5%
No 95%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 80
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 136
Number of Forecasts 143
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 311
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.001346
2.
-0.001346
3.
-0.001346
4.
-0.001346
5.
-0.001346

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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