Captbullett asks:
Will Donald Trump be sentenced to serve time in prison for his New York state conviction on falsifying business records?
Closed Jan 10, 2025 03:10PM UTC
On 30 May 2024, Trump was convicted on 34 felony charges related to falsifying business records, but the judge has twice postponed sentencing (CNN, The Hill, Judge Merchan Letter 6 September 2024). A prison sentence fully suspended by the trial court judge will not count as being sentenced to serve time in prison (Cornell - Suspended Sentence). A sentence to "time served" will not count (Cornell - Time Served). The question will close early if the judge in the case postpones the sentencing to a date after 17 January 2025. Whether Trump is granted bail pending appeal in the event of a sentence to serve time in prison is immaterial.
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NOTE 3 January 2025: The sentencing of Trump to a conditional discharge would be considered a sentence without time in prison.
The question closed "No, Trump will be sentenced but not to serve time in prison" is the closing date of 10 January 2025.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes, Trump will be sentenced to serve time in prison | 1% | |
No, Trump will be sentenced but not to serve time in prison | 93% | |
The judge will set aside the guilty verdict | 2% | |
Trump will not be sentenced for the conviction before 18 January 2025 | 4% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 79 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 180 | |
Number of Forecasts | 346 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 527 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |