Captbullett asks:

Will Donald Trump be sentenced to serve time in prison for his New York state conviction on falsifying business records?

Started Sep 13, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 10, 2025 03:10PM UTC

On 30 May 2024, Trump was convicted on 34 felony charges related to falsifying business records, but the judge has twice postponed sentencing (CNN, The Hill, Judge Merchan Letter 6 September 2024). A prison sentence fully suspended by the trial court judge will not count as being sentenced to serve time in prison (Cornell - Suspended Sentence). A sentence to "time served" will not count (Cornell - Time Served). The question will close early if the judge in the case postpones the sentencing to a date after 17 January 2025. Whether Trump is granted bail pending appeal in the event of a sentence to serve time in prison is immaterial.

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NOTE 3 January 2025: The sentencing of Trump to a conditional discharge would be considered a sentence without time in prison.


The question closed "No, Trump will be sentenced but not to serve time in prison" is the closing date of 10 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, Trump will be sentenced to serve time in prison 1%
No, Trump will be sentenced but not to serve time in prison 93%
The judge will set aside the guilty verdict 2%
Trump will not be sentenced for the conviction before 18 January 2025 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 79
Average for questions older than 6 months: 180
Number of Forecasts 346
Average for questions older than 6 months: 527
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.997858
2.
-0.990312
3.
-0.981686
4.
-0.977332
5.
-0.935455

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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